Abstract
This study aims to estimate the value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting to China’s agricultural sector. This study applies the Weibull distribution to model crop yields under different ENSO phases. Under the framework of Bayesian decision theory, this research pioneers the application of China’s Agricultural Sector Model to translate the yield effects resulting from ENSO variations into economic effects. Results show that ENSO exerts noticeable and heterogeneous effects on crop yields over selected crops across different regions. In addition, ENSO forecasting is useful for farmers’ cropping decisions and positively impacts economic surplus. The findings present that the value of this information is generally positive and rises with improved forecast accuracy, with the value of perfect forecasting estimated to be as substantial as CNY 3168 million. However, the value of ENSO forecasting is relatively small in the context of China’s tremendous agricultural output. This study is the first to evaluate the value of ENSO forecasting to China’s agriculture sector and has critical implications for the promotion of a Chinese ENSO forecast system.
Highlights
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatureswhich arise from the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean andhas climatic effects on a global scale
The impact measurements of climate variability on agriculture have evolved significantly in recent years (e.g., [2,3,4]). Farmers can adjust their cropping decisions to mitigate the impacts of climate variability and maximize their profits if ENSO information is disseminated in advance. These adjustments to cropping decisions that are driven by ENSO information, such as reallocating planting acreage and altering inputs, are likely to have a positive impact on the variations in economic surplus, which can be explained as the value of an ENSO forecast [5,6]
The results indicate that the agricultural sector will benefit from ENSO forecasting
Summary
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatureswhich arise from the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean andhas climatic effects on a global scale. The impact measurements of climate variability on agriculture have evolved significantly in recent years (e.g., [2,3,4]) Farmers can adjust their cropping decisions to mitigate the impacts of climate variability and maximize their profits if ENSO information is disseminated in advance. These adjustments to cropping decisions that are driven by ENSO information, such as reallocating planting acreage and altering inputs, are likely to have a positive impact on the variations in economic surplus, which can be explained as the value of an ENSO forecast [5,6]. The potential of this gain to China’s agricultural sectoris unknown
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