Abstract
The relevance of the study lay in the need to obtain reliable information on the possible economic consequences of changing geocryological conditions in the Russian Arctic, to find methods for preventing (reducing) potential damage, increasing the safety of the population and economy in the areas of the highest geocryological risks, and ensuring balanced socio-economic development in the Russian Arctic permafrost zone for the long term. The study aimed to assess the cost of fixed assets, including their most vulnerable part – buildings and structures (case study: municipalities of the Russian Arctic Asian sector). Economic sectoral structure was evaluated in accordance with the Russian Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities using primary statistical data – closed data from companies accounting reports. The work used statistical, cartographic, and visual-graphic methods, as well as methods for analyzing spatial information and microeconomic data. According to calculations, the Russian Arctic Asian sector concentrates the fixed assets of commercial companies with a total value of about 14.8 trillion rubles, including buildings and structures worth 10.7 trillion rubles. The obtained calculated data can be used in modeling the directions of state policy in the field of climate change adaptation and territory protection from natural hazards.
Highlights
The expected global climate changes will be most intensely manifested exactly in the circumpolar latitudes (Anisimov et al 2016; The second assessment..., 2014; Arctic..., 2017; Volodin et al 2017), i.e. primarily in the territories belonging to the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF), most of which is located in the permafrost zone
Taking into account the average coefficients that characterized the share of buildings and structures in fixed assets value by economy sectors, the value of buildings and structures in AZRF Asian sector municipalities was estimated
An analysis of the fixed assets territorial organization in the AZRF Asian sector municipalities shows a significant heterogeneity of the study area in terms of their density distribution
Summary
The expected global climate changes will be most intensely manifested exactly in the circumpolar latitudes (Anisimov et al 2016; The second assessment..., 2014; Arctic..., 2017; Volodin et al 2017), i.e. primarily in the territories belonging to the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF), most of which is located in the permafrost zone. According to some forecasts (Porfiriev et al 2017), the cumulative effect of the positive consequences of climate change for the AZRF and the country economy as a whole until 2030 will be characterized by a noticeable excess of costs over benefits. In this case, permafrost degradation, where more than two-thirds of the total Russian Arctic urban population lives (and 100% of the population in the Russian Arctic Asian sector), seems to be a key problem associated with colossal direct and indirect damage. A one-time and massive decommissioning of a significant share of residential buildings, buildings and structures of the economy, regional and local road infrastructure
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