Abstract
Purpose of ReviewIntegrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios consistent with Paris Agreement targets involve large negative emission technologies (NETs), mostly bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Such reliance on BECCS implies IAMs assign it a high value. Past analyses on the value of BECCS in IAMs have not explicitly addressed the role of model structure and assumptions as value drivers. This paper examines the extent to which the value of BECCS in IAMs is enhanced by model structure constraints and assumptions.Recent FindingsPredominant use of high discount rates (3.5–5%) means models opt for delayed-action strategies for emissions mitigation that lead to high levels of cumulative net-negative emissions, while lower discount rates lead to reduce reliance on NETs. Until recently in the literature, most models limited NET options to only BECCS and afforestation, but introduction of other CDR options can reduce BECCS deployment. Constraints on grid penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) is a determining factor on the level of BECCS deployment across models, and more constrained grid penetration of VREs leads to more BECCS in electricity generation.SummaryThis paper concludes BECCS derives significant value not only from the existing structure of IAMs but also from what is not represented in models and by predominant use of high discount rates. Omissions include NETs other than BECCS and deforestation, low-carbon innovation in end-use technologies, grid resilience to intermittent sources, and energy use in agriculture production. As IAMs increasingly endogenize such constraints, the value of BECCS in resulting scenarios is likely to be dampened.
Highlights
The Paris Agreement (PA) has set targets to limit temperature increases relative to pre-industrial era to well below 2 °C with an effort to keep it under 1.5 °C [1]
This paper examines the extent to which the value of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in Integrated assessment model (IAM) is enhanced by what is and what is not represented in the models, the constraints imposed to BECCS and/or other technologies, or assumptions on nontechnical parameters such as intergenerational equity or governance of the BECCS chain
Lower discount rates lead to higher average annual investments in solar and wind technologies in both 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios [50]. This suggests that negative emission technologies (NETs), and BECCS, may be entering the solution space of IAMs for the “wrong” reasons rather than the role they were originally included for [51]
Summary
The Paris Agreement (PA) has set targets to limit temperature increases relative to pre-industrial era to well below 2 °C with an effort to keep it under 1.5 °C [1]. In order to meet these targets, recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports emphasize the widespread and deep changes required in the global energy, agriculture, and land use systems in the coming decades [2, 3]. As the main NET, BECCS has been the subject of several peer-reviewed articles describing what it is, its technoeconomic characterization, and its application in climate scenarios [5, 12–16]. A few articles have attempted to describe its value as a mitigation technology [17–19]. These articles have focused on the value of BECCS in mitigation scenarios in terms of its importance in enabling models to find This paper examines the extent to which the value of BECCS in IAMs is enhanced by what is and what is not represented in the models, the constraints imposed to BECCS and/or other technologies, or assumptions on nontechnical parameters such as intergenerational equity or governance of the BECCS chain
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