The value of assimilating different ground-based profiling networks on the forecasts of bore-generating nocturnal convection

Abstract

AbstractThere is a growing interest in the use of ground-based remote sensors for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), which is sparked by their potential to address the currently existing observation gap within the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Nevertheless, open questions still exist regarding the relative importance of and synergy among various instrument types. To shed light on these important questions, the present study examines the forecast benefits associated with several different ground-based profiling networks using 10 diverse cases from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign. Aggregated verification statistics reveal that a combination of in situ and remote sensing profilers leads to the largest increase in forecast skill, both in terms of the parent mesoscale convective system and the explicitly resolved bore. These statistics also indicate that it is often advantageous to collocate thermodynamic and kinematic remote sensors. By contrast, the impacts of networks consisting of single profilers appear to be flow-dependent, with thermodynamic (kinematic) remote sensors being most useful in cases with relatively low (high) convective predictability. Deficiencies in the data assimilation method as well as inherent complexities in the governing moisture dynamics are two factors shown to limit the forecast value extracted from such networks.