The valuation of retail property in Australia

Abstract

Presents theoretical and methodological considerations and techniques which bear directly on the valuation of retail properties in Australia and, to lesser extents, the UK and the USA. Surveys the Australian retail sector in terms of its overall significance for the national economy as well as the relative performance of the sector’s constituents. Considers the current domination of the sector by the regional and local shopping centres and the correlative decline in importance of retail outlets in traditional shopping streets. Contends that the dominance of shopping centres has produced an oligopolistic situation with regard to the supply of retail space in regional shopping centres because of the high regard in which such centres are held by major investing organizations. Despite the ability of shopping centres to produce income flows with apparently substantial year‐by‐year increases, this trend has been bucked in recent years by below replacement cost sale prices achieved by a number of shopping centres. Raises the crucial question of which factors should be considered most influential by valuers in assessing the capital worth of retail properties. Provides exemplary calculations by which realistic assessments are achievable. Casts a critical eye over entrenched “axioms” of the trade, such as that retail tenants can pay increased rents annually regardless of economic considerations and irrespective of the actual profitability of their retail activities. Considers the difficulties which now beset the position of specialty retailers in relation to the shopping centres in which they rent space. Argues for the importance of partnership relationships between landlords and tenants and predicts that the constant quest to maximize the rentals of individual retail outlets within shopping centres may seriously threaten the long‐term security of those centres. Presents recommendations for improving the prospects of successful trading by shopping centres against a consideration of potential developments of other purchasing means (warehouse retailing, TV retailing and catalogue shopping). Concludes that many shopping centres currently regarded as prime investments may appear less attractive when reconsidered in the light of the developments here outlined.