The validity of the environmental Kuznets curve in the presence of long-run civil wars: A case of Afghanistan

Abstract

The war in Afghanistan left significantly negative consequences in all spheres of its society, leading the country to the highest levels of poverty, hunger, and environmental damage. This study explores the long-run impact of civil wars on environmental degradation in Afghanistan using the conceptual framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve and models augmented with pollutants, civil wars, comprehensive financial development index, and macroeconomic predictors on a set of data from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2020. However, while the results confirm long-run relationships amid indicators by the autoregressive distributed lags bound test, the results of the vector error-correcting model to Granger causality reveal bidirectional causality links between CO2 emissions, per capita real GDP, civil wars, the financial development index, energy consumption, trade openness, and the inflation rate in the long-run, while the findings extend to confirm multidimensionality and interdependencies among predictors in the short-run. Moreover, the results indicate dual findings. First, it confirms that civil wars, the financial development index, per capita real gross domestic product, population growth, and the inflation rate significantly increase CO2 emissions, while the squared per capita real gross domestic product, energy consumption, and trade openness reduce CO2 emissions both in the short and long runs. Second, the results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship, supporting the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Afghanistan. Based on the findings, appropriate policy measures are recommended.