Abstract
Abstract. Earth science information (data, knowledge, advice) can enhance the evidence base for land-use decision-making. The utility of this information depends on factors including the context and objectives of land-use decisions, the timeliness and efficiency with which earth science information is delivered, and the strength, relevance, uncertainties, and risks assigned to earth science information relative to other inputs. We investigate land-use decision-making practices in Christchurch, New Zealand, and the surrounding region in response to mass movement (e.g., rockfall, cliff collapses) and ground-surface fault rupture hazards incurred during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). Rockfall fatality risk models combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data were co-produced by earth scientists and decision makers and formed primary evidence for risk-based land-use decision-making with adaptive capacity. A public consultation and submission process enabled consideration of additional earth science information primarily via stakeholder requests. For fault rupture hazards, pre-disaster geotechnical guidelines and collaboration networks enhanced the ability of earth scientists to rapidly acquire relevant observational data to meet the demands of decision makers. Expeditious decision-making granted permissive consent for rebuilding in the fault rupture zone based on preliminary scientific advice that was subsequently supported by more comprehensive geological investigations. Rapidly fluctuating and diverse demands for post-disaster earth science information may be best met through the prior establishment of (i) land-use policies and technical guidelines tailored for a variety of diverse disaster scenarios, (ii) hazard and risk analyses in land-use plans, including acquisition of geospatial and other earth science data, and (iii) coordinated scientific networks that may comprise subgroups with diverse goals, operational perspectives, and protocols which allow the many facets of scientific information acquisition and delivery to be successfully addressed. Despite the collective knowledge shared here, some recent land-use practices in New Zealand continue to prioritize other (e.g., socioeconomic) factors above earth science information, even in areas of extreme disaster risk.
Highlights
Evidence-based, participative, and equitable land-use planning is considered best-practice for balancing risk reduction actions with opportunities for sustainable land use
They were developed under conditions involving large risks and uncertainties and under intense scrutiny and time pressure. These aspects placed immense pressure on the technical and policy development teams working to deliver the underpinning science and inform policy developments for the decision makers. It is the opinion of the authors of this paper that the residential zoning process carried out by Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) would have been more efficient and less time intensive if an existing policy framework had been in place which defined the criteria, metrics, and methods that could be used for zoning and was linked to anticipated government outcomes
GNS Science is a crown-owned company required to conduct scientific research for New Zealand’s benefit (Sects. 4 and 5.1(a) in the Crown Research Institutes Act, 1992; http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/ 1992/0047/latest/DLM264292.html, last access: 23 November 2020), including a mandated need to respond to natural disasters, as well as contractual obligations under the GeoNet program
Summary
Evidence-based, participative, and equitable land-use planning is considered best-practice for balancing risk reduction actions with opportunities for sustainable land use. Land-use planning is used to reduce risk prior to the occurrence of a hazard event (Johnson et al, 2005; Becker et al, 2010; Schwab, 2014). In practice the occurrence of a disaster is often the greatest stimulus for developing and implementing policies for land-use change (Saunders and Becker, 2015). Quigley et al.: Earth science information in post-earthquake land-use decision-making land-use planning actions could include temporary to longterm changes to land-use policies, building codes and regulations, and occupancy conditions, including voluntary or compulsory land acquisitions to reduce or prohibit future occupation. Land-use planning policies are developed and implemented by local government bodies, with relevant information sought from, and policy developed with, indigenous peoples, critical infrastructure representatives, experts, consultants, stakeholders, advisory committees, and participating citizen community groups (Comerio, 2013; Platt and Drinkwater, 2016)
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