The usefulness of accrual-based surpluses in the Canadian public sector

Abstract

This paper investigates the usefulness of accrual-based surpluses for predicting future cash flows and surpluses in the context of the Canadian public sector. We provide evidence that surpluses incrementally enhance the ability of operating cash flows to predict future cash flows and surpluses. Analysis of our accrual quality model illustrates that accrual accounting is useful in the public sector for mitigating the noise in operating cash flows. We also find that decomposing surpluses into operating cash flows and accruals enhances the ability of surpluses to forecast future cash flows and surpluses, indicating that aggregate and disaggregated surpluses are positively related to both relevance and reliability. Our test results do not indicate the presence of conservatism in the Canadian public sector, and confirm that the usefulness of surpluses in making predictions is independent of selected control factors.