Abstract
Migration is a complex phenomenon with economic, social, political, cultural and human implications, and therefore, it is the locus of interest for many researchers from various fields. After 1989, migration in Romania became a social issue due to the large number of migrants searching for labour all around Europe. This paper focuses on investigating and forecasting labour migration from Romania and its geographical orientation. We analysed the gravity model, which simple and accurate, focused on the distance as a determinant of the length of the mobility and, thus, of the host country chosen by the migrant. Based on the proposed macroeconomic model, we discuss results for main destinations countries, i.e. Spain, Italy, Austria, Germany, as well as for EU as a whole.
Highlights
The international migration of workers and the policies on migration applied by the authorities are major, consistent, often multidisciplinary concerns, crowning the efforts of many researchers and practitioners from various fields: economists, sociologists, demographers and political scientists, to discuss and explain the determinants and consequences of migration
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 2017, 23(2): 392–409 phenomenon is highlighted by the fact that, in about 20 years, between 10 and 15% of the Romanian population have fled the country, and an even higher number is involved at present in various forms of circular migration, tempered only by the global phenomenon of the economic crisis
Many methods used in estimating international migration are based on deterministic mathematical models or different quantitative techniques, but, contrasting with the deterministic methods, the stochastic instruments for the analysis and forecasting of migration are rooted in the probability theory
Summary
The international migration of workers and the policies on migration applied by the authorities are major, consistent, often multidisciplinary concerns, crowning the efforts of many researchers and practitioners from various fields: economists, sociologists, demographers and political scientists, to discuss and explain the determinants and consequences of migration. The EU accession in 2007 and the subsequent international economic crisis have not changed much of this profile; they might only have caused some structural changes in the composition of flows, destinations, education level of the migrants, etc. Labour migration, including both temporary and circular migration, is the most noticeable component of Romanian migration in recent decades and in the whole post-communist period (IOM 2005; Andrén, Roman 2014). Iancu et al The use of the gravity model in forecasting the flows of emigrants
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