The Use of Scenarios in Contingency Planning

Abstract

ABSTRACT Prior to the enactment of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90), predesignated On-Scene Coordinators (OSCs) prepared local contingency plans (LCPs) with little opportunity for participation outside the OSC's staff by affected stakeholders. OPA 90 changed the fundamental structure of this vitally important planning tool used to articulate the policies and arrangements for oil spill and hazardous material release in a geographic area. A new plan, called an Area Contingency Plan (ACP), was envisioned to be developed by Area Committees that generally include the principle stakeholders in an area. By and large, the ACP process is working, although the quality of plans varies greatly around the United States. A new planning concept, however, currently in use by some of the leading and most successful businesses in the world, has yet to find its way into planning for oil spills and hazardous substance releases. That new concept, scenario planning, creates the means for capturing the potential for a variety of futures without attempting to predict the future. The Julian N spill in Portland, Maine in 1996 was considered a success in large measure because the incident followed on the heels of a scenario-driven area exercise. Scenario planning formalizes that process in such a way as to make the ACP reflect the consensus—what incidents might occur, what are the critical areas of concern, and how might they be dealt with in an efficient way. It brings together the response community and others in a way that ensures participation, understanding, and cooperation in the planning process when it is most needed—before an incident occurs.