Abstract
The data on the use of sawnwood is compiled for six end-use sectors and nine related producer sectors involved in the West German wood supply chain for construction (Hochbau). The time-series identified cover the period from 1970 to 2000 and are used for econometric analysis, and forecasting the wood use within the subsectors. For each sector a causal model relying on intermediate demand theory and the theory of combined factor and consumer demand is estimated for the years 1970 to 2000 applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Then, Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) is used to estimate a system of subsectors in order to increase the efficiency of model estimations. For the purpose of forecasting, the projections for exogenous variables are needed and are here accomplished through Vector Auto Regression (VAR) modelling. Incorporating projections into the models then results in sectorwise forecasts, as well as the grand total for end-use and producer sectors respectively.
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