The use of regression methods for the investigation of trends in suicide rates in Hungary between 1963 and 2011.

Abstract

Suicide rates in Hungary have been analyzed from different aspects in recent decades. However, only descriptive rates have been reported. The aim of our epidemiological study was to characterize the pattern of annual rates of suicide in Hungary during the period 1963-2011 by applying advanced statistical methods. Annual suicide rates per 100,000 population (>6years) for gender, age group and suicide method were determined from published frequency tables and reference population data obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Trends and relative risks of suicide were investigated using negative binomial regression models overall and in stratified analyses (by gender, age group and suicide method). Joinpoint regression analyses were additionally applied to characterize trends and to find turning points during the period 1963-2011. Overall, 178,323 suicides (50,265 females and 128,058 males) were committed in Hungary during the investigated period. The risk of suicide was higher among males than females overall, in all age groups and for most suicide methods. The annual suicide rate exhibited a significant peak in 1982 and remained basically constant after 2006. Different segmented patterns were observed for the suicide rates in the various age groups. Suicide rates revealed segmented linear pattern. This is the first detailed trend analysis with risk estimates obtained via joinpoint and negative binomial regression methods simultaneously for age-specific suicide frequencies in Hungary.