Abstract
There has been a trend in recent years toward the use of probabilistic methods for the analysis of uncertainty and variability in risk assessment. By developing a plausible distribution of risk, it is possible to obtain a more complete characterization of risk than is provided by either best estimates or upper limits. We describe in this paper a general framework for evaluating uncertainty and variability in risk estimation and outline how this framework can be used in the establishment of drinking water quality objectives. In addition to characterizing uncertainty and variability in risk, this framework also facilitates the identification of specific factors that contribute most to uncertainty and variability. The application of these probabilistic risk assessment methods is illustrated using tetrachloroethylene and trihalomethanes as examples.
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