The Use of Physics-Based Models to Predict Fragmentation of Ordnance

Abstract

Abstract : Historically the source of input weapon fragmentation data for safe escape models has been arena tests. These same data collected from arena tests are also used as input for models used by other technical communities such as effectiveness, collateral damage, force protection, and weapon design. (1) Arena data have historically served all these communities well. (2) There are several shortcomings with the use of arena data. (3) All communities are interested in non-traditional methods for predicting fragmentation. (4) Several models now exist that solve part of the problem of predicting fragmentation data but no comprehensive package now exists that will completely characterize the fragmentation of a weapon. (5) There has been enough progress in recent years to channel the various efforts to create one analytical tool that meets the needs of all communities. One purpose of this paper is to present a survey of the work that is ongoing in these nontraditional methodologies, whether they are very academic methodologies or more basic first-principles engineering approaches. A second purpose of this paper is to present ongoing plans in the area of fragmentation prediction models.