The use of Monte Carlo methods in natural resource management models

Abstract

The Monte Carlo method provides a means of introducing natural variability in data, uncertainty of parameter estimation, chance occurrences and model reliability, into the process of simulation modeling for resource management. The technique is described and demonstrated for a hypothetical application of a Gaussian Plume Dispersion Model to a case of atmospheric pollution. It is concluded that the utility of the Monte Carlo approach lies mainly in providing decision makers with information on the likelihood of extreme occurrences and the inherent reliability of simulation modeling.