The Use of Managerial Tools to Support Policymaking in a Peace Process: The Case of Displaced Population in Colombia

Abstract

For more than 50 years, Colombia has suffered from internal conflicts between the government and different armed groups (guerillas, paramilitary forces, drug lords, private armies). Since last year, the negotiation process between the main guerilla group (FARC) and the government has defined a broad 6-topic agenda which hopefully will lead to a peaceful end of war. A key component that must be addressed for the success of this negotiation is the development of public policies regarding the reparation of the victims of this conflict. This paper focuses on evaluating possible tools that can be used to support the challenges related to the planning and assessment of the required resources for the implementation of a comprehensive policy towards the displaced population. We argue that the use of simulation tools and methodologies such as system dynamics can be an effective approach to learn about the effectiveness of those policies. Any policy aiming to provide compensation or other reparations to victims of forced displacement (almost ten per cent of the whole population of the country) needs to be carefully crafted, as elements such as the information delays, feedback cycles, and other characteristics related with this situation could provide more challenging without the aid of a planning tool as such. We build a preliminary simulation model exemplifying the implementation of a policy aiming to repair victims from forced displacement in Colombia comparing the prescribed terms defined by law, as opposed to the real lapses that the process is taking into practice. We argue that, assessing the requirements and the limitations of the restitution of land in Colombia in a simulation environment will be a useful tool to learn about the challenges and inform policies in this extent.