The use of indigenous climate forecasting methods by the pastoralists of Northern Kenya

Abstract

This paper focused on the early warning signs of climate variation as indicated by the Borana community of Isiolo County, Kenya. The objective of the study was to determine the indigenous early warning signs used by the Borana to predict the onset of rainfall, floods and droughts and their efficacy. The study was guided by cultural ecological theory, and data was collected through secondary sources, semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and direct observation. The findings revealed that the Borana had many indigenous early warning signs to predict different weather changes. These included the behaviour of animals and birds, presence of insects, clouds, the colour of the intestines of slaughtered domestic animals, interpreting dreams, flowering of plants and the pattern of stars. The study also indicated that the indigenous early warning signs have been reliable since time immemorial; however, the increasing severity and frequency of drought over the last decade has rendered indigenous forecasting less reliable than it has been in the past. Early warning of weather changes is very important as it helps the community to apply the most appropriate coping strategy when faced with certain natural calamities. This study recommends a combination of the existing indigenous early warning indicators with modern forecasting methods, to make them more appropriate.