Abstract
Improving safety has always been the top interest in the aviation industry. The outcomes of safety and risk analyses have become much more thorough and sophisticated. They have become an industry standard of safety investigations in many airlines nowadays. In the past, airlines were much more limited in answering the questions about hazardous situations, accident probabilities, and accident rates. Airlines try hard to cope with stricter safety standards. The objective of this paper is to find out and quantify the extent of the expert judgment in helping airlines in the evaluation of the Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) events. On top of that, the paper reveals the method for a careful choice of experts, so that their estimations will maximize the potential of an accurate and useful outcome. Also, the paper provides details of implementation of the classical model into this research, then continues with the calculations and visualization of the outcomes. The outcomes are probability distributions per each aircraft type, then per IATA accident type and finally per FDM event.
Highlights
Expert judgments have been used during recent decades to gather many expert opinions about different subjects
Numerous human error assessment techniques are available for human reliability derivation, they have not been applied in flight safety assessment [8]
The Y axis is the number of accidents that can occur in 10,000 occurrences of a particular Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) event
Summary
Expert judgments have been used during recent decades to gather many expert opinions about different subjects. They have earned an increased attention in risk assessment across various industries. Seeking experts’ opinion has played a vital role in maritime, nuclear, aerospace, chemical, economical, meteorological, and technical industries to provide estimations on the desired subjects of interest [1][3]. These include, inter alia, risk assessments and their influence on safety in the area of interest [4]. The risk assessment and mitigation process were presented through steps logically excluded from the multi-stage process [9]
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