The Use of Cubic Smoothing Spline Models for Predicting Early Fruit Size in ‘Keenan’ Valencia (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) Oranges

Abstract

Fruit size is an important factor for the sale of fruit in fresh markets. Fruit size prediction early in the growing season would help with planning harvest operations, administering marketing strategies and an advance determination of the proportion of fruit that will be suitable for certain size classes. Fruit diameter growth of ‘Keenan’ Valencia oranges was measured over five consecutive growing seasons (2014–2018) during Stage II (cell enlargement) and Stage III (maturation) periods between January and October. Fruits were randomly selected and tagged from around the tree canopy to record the fruit diameter at fortnightly intervals until harvest. The data were used to develop a fruit size prediction model using the cubic smoothing splines technique. Results indicated that from the fruit growth patterns, an accurate prediction of the final fruit size and distribution were possible during the early Stage II fruit development phase, 6–7 months ahead of the final harvest. It was concluded that fruit size must be 66 mm in diameter by 30 March to attain a fruit size > 77 mm at harvest. This model was tested in 2019 with an accuracy of 97% in predicting fruit size distribution harvest across three size classes.