The use of a spatial model of economic efficiency to predict the most likely outcomes under different fishing strategy scenarios

Abstract

The current European Union has been progressively implementing since January 2014 a discard ban which includes the obligation to land unwanted catch for certain regulated species and sizes. Although a full enforcement of the landing obligation has a direct impact on discard reduction through more responsible and selective fishing, fishers argue that it will prompt both a decrease in incomes and an increase in working time onboard. Thus, the measure is in a hold in south-western waters due to the difficulties to implement the ban in mixed fisheries This paper analyzes some possible scenarios which fishers could face under the landing obligation. It is shown the construction of a spatial bio-economic model to infer average costs, incomes and gross profits by fishing ground. We illustrate its use using a coastal trawling fleet based in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula as case study. Results show how fishing ground selection will remain the key factor affecting gross profits, well above the selection of closer fishing grounds, the improvement of fuel efficiency, or extending the length of the fishing trip. Increasing the number of crew members to overcome the expected excess of work time onboard would also be a cost-benefit balanced measure. According to our scenario simulations, to maintain business-as-usual (status quo situation) is the most probable fishing strategy without any regulation change. Fishing strategies are tight and maximized to current economic outcomes. Fishers will be reluctant to change their own fishing unless they are forced to for economic and/or regulatory reasons.