The use of a GIS in assessing the impacts of sea level rise on nature conservation along the Dutch coast: 1990–2090

Abstract

The Dutch coastline is expected to change considerably during the next 100 years. Erosion will prevail, although accretion will occur locally. To establish a new policy for coastal defence management an integrated policy analysis study was performed. Major dune functions (nature conservation, recreation, public drinking water supply, housing and industry) have been inventarized by using a Geographic Information System. This study reports on the part of the analysis which takes nature conservation interests into account. Evaluation of nature interests has been based on the criteria: rarity and diversity of plant species c.q. vegetation types, succession stage, and completeness. This results in a classification of nature into five classes, based on abiotic as well as biotic characteristics of the landscape. Losses of nature interests were studied due to: loss of land because of shoreline retreat, to remodelling of the foredune ridge, and to changes of the dune groundwater level. An evaluation is given of the methods used to assess ecological impacts. Ideas are presented for further research on the prediction of ecological impacts and on coastline management which combines traditional coastal defence with nature conservation.