The use of a clinical calculator to determine the rate of development of chronic kidney disease in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Abstract

Aim – to develop an applied prognostic calculator for the rate of progression of CKD in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes, which makes it possible to identify a group of high rate of GFR reduction in conditions of routine outpatient admission. Material and methods. 69 clinical indicators were studied, the interrelationships and significance of differences in parameters in the groups identified according to the original diagnostic parameter, the glomerular filtration rate reduction index with a threshold value of 3.83 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year, above which the rate of progression of CKD was considered high. Results. By using regression analysis, significant factors for the prognostic calculator were identified: the duration of diabetes and insulin therapy, concomitant diagnosis of obesity, pulse in the ankle artery, severe stage of polyneuropathy, risk group IV of hypertension, treatment with sulfonylureas, the number of antihypertensive drugs taken. When evaluating the information capacity and predictive ability of the calculator, the area under the AUC ROC curve was 0.89 (0.80; 0.99) p 0.001, which characterizes the quality of the diagnostic technique as high. Conclusion. The presented calculator gives the doctor the opportunity to identify a group of patients with the risk of rapid progression of CKD directly on an outpatient basis.