The urban vote in Zambia’s 2021 elections: popular attitudes towards the economy in Copperbelt and Lusaka

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article analyses Afrobarometer survey data to understand popular attitudes toward the economy of Zambia amongst residents in the ruling party strongholds. The Patriotic Front (PF) won the most votes in urban provinces from 2006 to 2016 but crucially lost to the opposition in 2021 while retaining majorities in its rural base. Historically, opposition parties have won the most votes in urban regions on every occasion that Zambia has experienced an electoral turnover, demonstrating the significance of the urban vote. The evidence presented in this article reveals that respondents in the two urban provinces, Copperbelt and Lusaka, were better educated, had more access to essential services, and had higher levels of access to Information relative to their compatriots in the PF’s rural strongholds. While both urban and rural residents were dissatisfied with the government’s handling of the economy, the PF’s urban base was more likely to punish the ruling party at the polls. Drawing on survey evidence and literature on voting in urban Africa, this article shows that the divergent geographic, social, and economic characteristics of urban and rural areas produce distinct grievances which have implications for policy expectations, political mobilization, and how voters evaluate candidates.