The urban future of Vietnam

Abstract

Vietnam was the second most populous country in Southeast Asia in 1990. Population is expected to increase to 98.4 million (country-wide) and 16.2 million (urban) by 2010. UN projections indicate a rise of urban population to 33.8 million. The author based on his 40 years of urbanization research in Asia considers the UN estimates more likely. The most likely economic development pattern will follow the South Korean Taiwanese and Thailand model. This model includes rapid development of a mixed economy with a large private sector open to foreign investment and a strong increase in manufactured exports. Most of the industrial and urban development are likely to be concentrated in the two Extended Metropolitan Regions of Hanoi-Haiphong and Ho Chi Minh. Development in these two densely populated regions is likely to create challenges for urban policymakers. Urban areas are defined as those with a defined urban concentration of population the natural and migration increase of urban population an increase in people engaged in nonagricultural occupations and an urban life style. This paper refers to Vietnamese definitions of urban places for the period 1970-89. Historically urban policies changed during five periods: the pre-colonial period; the French colonial period (1858-1945) with greater administrative commercial and manufacturing functions developed in cities and towns; the struggle for reunification during 1954-75; reconstruction during 1976-86; and the post-1986 economic reform period. Spatial distribution patterns have varied little since colonization. The factors influencing present urbanization are identified and discussed. Vietnamese planners recently proposed three main centers for development and two centers for secondary development that are linked by roads railways and rivers. The author makes six recommendations for avoiding the potential problems of urban growth and development.