Abstract
This article contends that merchandise trade statistics are insufficiently reliable for accurate economic analysis and informed trade policy decisions. The official trade figures analysed for this article appear to be significantly overvalued. Re-exports combined with re-imports caused both world import and export data to be exaggerated by as much as 20%. Import data was further inflated, and bilateral export data was unreliable even between developed countries. Compared with official figures, the article’s case study estimates that the US merchandise trade deficit is nearly 20% less with China, nearly double with Mexico, and over triple with Canada.
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