The Unpredictable Truth: A Proposed Road Map for a Reflect-Then-Act Approach to Climate Uncertainties and Lessons Learned from Norwegian Municipalities

Abstract

Abstract Through the years, several papers have criticized climate policy decision-making for being naïve with respect to how it views climate model outputs as objective facts and uses the outputs directly to program policies. From this and similar observations, many of the papers conclude that there is a need for shifting to a new approach on how climate policy makers may relate to climate change uncertainties. The article proposes such a shift by presenting a road map on how to address uncertainties in climate change adaptation. It consists of three major elements: first, to accept that in many cases we will not be able to reduce climate change uncertainties; second, to diversify the way in which we describe climate change uncertainties, moving from a one-dimensional technical perspective to a multidimensional perspective that applies uncertainties also to social and political processes and systems; and third, to change the way we address climate change uncertainties by moving from a predict-then-act to a reflect-then-act approach, implying that we must adapt to climate change even under high and varied forms of uncertainties. Embedded in this last point is to accept that, unlike for climate change mitigation, the precautionary principle will apply in many situations of climate change adaptation. In the last part of the article the usability of the proposed road map is demonstrated post ante on four Norwegian cases of climate-related natural hazard events. Significance Statement The article sums up the international policy and scientific climate change uncertainty discourses and presents a road map on how to improve the way uncertainties are addressed in local efforts of adapting to climate change. The underlying logic of the proposed road map is to expand from the so far prevailing logic of adapting only when uncertainties are low with an additional logic that is applicable in situations with high uncertainties. The road map consists of seven questions to be addressed and seven alternative adaptation options to follow. A selection of recent practical cases on local climate change adaptation efforts in Norway is then presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed road map.