The Unpredictable Critical Threshold in COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change

Petre Roman

doi:10.11648/j.ijema.20210904.12

Abstract

In the real world we are confronted with situations where tiny variations in initial conditions can have major influence on unfolding events within the natural systems. We call it <i>“sensitive dependence on initial conditions”. </i>When predictions are virtually impossible, we have to be capable of detecting in advance the patterns and qualitative features of the natural systems behaviour. But, the moment of truth, unpredictable, can appear in the form of a drastic change, when a critical threshold (tipping point) is reached. It is by no means clear that the dioxide gas accumulation and the greenhouse effect will follow, as of now, a gradually increasing path. More probable we will face, at some not distant point in the near future, a moment when a critical threshold is reached and then, a dramatic and more dangerous change happens. Another example clearly indicates the same tipping unpredictability: a major Antarctic glacier is at risk of disintegrating irreversibly if it passes a key tipping point. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent case in point. Within this framework of ideas and concepts a different kind of question is needed: <i>Does humanity have property rights </i>and in the meantime the subject of the present day is global coordination and even more: cultural evolution. Worried about the effects of climate change, we need to remember that every single action within a global system depends for its success on cooperative behaviour.

Highlights

The present paper is focused on the unpredictability of natural phenomena and the occurrence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of natural systems, i.e. dynamic systems which are sensitive to the change of initial conditions
In the real world we are confronted with situations where tiny variations in initial conditions can have major influence on unfolding events within the natural systems
The Critical Threshold in the Natural Phenomena In January this year (2020), the Davos Economic Forum organizer, Klaus Schwab, told the press: “We do not want to reach the critical tipping point of the irreversibility of climate change.”. This statement, which seems to me to be at the opposite of the “Davos spirit” which prevailed in many previous years, implies that we know when the tipping point might occur

Summary

Introduction

The present paper is focused on the unpredictability of natural phenomena and the occurrence of critical thresholds (tipping points) in the dynamics of natural systems, i.e. dynamic (nonlinear) systems which are sensitive to the change of initial conditions. The purpose of my work in the last two years (I wrote a book “Unpredictability&Decision”, published this year, 2021, in Romanian) is to show that the impact of unpredictability on decisional thinking could be, or even should be, analyzed from a variety of scientific perspectives: physics of the natural environment, logic of mathematics, logic of truth, quantum mechanics, economics, neurosciences, psychology and philosophy Such a diverse interdisciplinarity is difficult to grasp, not to mention the intent to wield several courses of scientific thinking into the process of economic decision-making, it is necessary to remember that under conditions of uncertainty and disorder we do not have models of quantitative prediction of the outcomes; we are, strongly interested in the patterns and qualitative features of the dynamics of the situations we are confronted with

Unpredictability and Order

The Critical Threshold in the Natural Phenomena

Does Humanity Have Property Rights

Findings

Conclusion