The United States’ Myanmar policy after the 2021 military coup and its prospects under China–US strategic competition

Abstract

This article examines recent foreign policy of the United States (US) toward Myanmar in the aftermath of the military coup led by Min Aung Hlaing on February 1, 2021. In response to the coup, President Joe Biden imposed targeted sanctions on the responsible military leaders. Against the backdrop of rising tensions between the US and China, this article explores the future of US–Myanmar relations and a possible return to the previously strained relationship from 1994 to 2008. To investigate the motives behind the coup by the Tatmadaw and the responses of the US executive and legislative branches, this article utilizes a combination of document research and semi-structured interviews with retired diplomats, scholars, observers, and activists. The analysis concludes that the US will likely continue its targeted sanctions policy while maintaining diplomatic relations with Naypyidaw in order to maintain influence in Myanmar during the US–China strategic competition. The article also highlights the potential for a future deterioration of US–Myanmar relations.