Abstract
There is little consistency in American policy toward those states that have obtained independent nuclear weapons capabilities. Bilateral relations between the United States and the new nuclear state prior to weapons acquisi tion have proven to be far more accurate indicators of future trends in U.S. policy than the acquisition by the state of nuclear weapons per se. In the future, five basic options con front the United States: malign neglect, nuclear realignment, confrontation politics, equality promotion, and adaptive con tinuity. The last option, which involves the implementation of a variety of political-military and energy-related strategies, is the most likely one to be adopted. Major shocks to the international system, however, will drive the United States toward greater use of sanctions against the new nuclear states.
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