The United States Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Comprehensive Forecast Using a Regression Model

Abstract

The Earth’s climate change, colloquially known as global warming, is detrimental to life across the globe. The most significant contributor to the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect is carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. In the United States (US) economy, the major benefactor of CO2 emissions is the energy sector, with the top contribution coming from fossil fuels. The estimated 2020 CO2 emission was 5981 million metric tons, despite a dramatic reduction in the trendline compared to the year 2019. An ultimatum for energy consumption rises from fiscal development, growing population, and technological advancements. Energy use and GHG emissions are inclined upward, provoking an unwholesome nation. This paper studies (i) the principal sources of energy use and CO2 emission, (ii) the inclination of such sources, (iii) trends and drivers of GHG emissions, (iv) low carbon development and carbon footprint, and (v) the diverse US projects for reducing GHG emissions and the challenges in deploying them. We have forecasted the emissions from fossil fuels from 2025 to 2050 and compared the results using MAPE to calculate the mean percentage error. The forecasted results of 2050 show high accuracy, suggesting probable approaches to reduce further CO2 emissions, measures to reduce emissions through carbon capture and sequestration, and help in the development of improved GHG mitigations for the nation.