Abstract
P. Kauppi argues that the recommendation of the UN Climate Convention (“… to stabilize … greenhouse gas concentrations [to] … prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”) is laudable, but likely cannot be achieved.
Highlights
A..o.di.rg to general circulation models (GCMs), a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration would increase the global mean temperatureby 1.5'to 4.5oC (2-4).Thrs change wouid be dangerous in drought-prone regions and low coastal areas. other regions might benefit and the net global effect could be positive,somewould suffer
The current population of about 6 billion people emits about 6 billion tons of carbon into the atmosohere per year (6)
The concentration of CO2 started increasing in the 19th cenrury according to ice-core records, the humanmade emissions were on the order of only 1 billion tons (5)
Summary
In accordance with the releuant provisionsof the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphereat a lec,elthat woull, preuentdangerous anthropogenicinterferencewith the climat es ystem( 1 ) . A..o.di.rg to general circulation models (GCMs), a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration would increase the global mean temperatureby 1.5'to 4.5oC (2-4).Thrs change wouid be dangerous in drought-prone regions and low coastal areas. other regions might benefit and the net global effect could be positive,somewould suffer. The specific wording of the "ultimate objective" does not express these aims correcclv and realisticallv.
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