The unintended consequences of antiflaring policies—and measures for mitigation

Abstract

Oil reservoirs contain significant quantities of methane, which can leak out when the oil is extracted. At oil wells around the world, more than 140 billion cubic meters (bcm) of this methane is burned off (“flared”) every year, transforming it into carbon dioxide, which contributes to global warming. Just as much gas is released directly (“vented”) as methane, which makes as much as a 16-fold contribution to global warming. Flaring and venting waste 8% of global natural gas production annually, contribute 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions (1), and disperse a range of pollutants that harm human health (2, 3) and local environments (4). Capturing and using this gas would be a prodevelopment (5), cost-effective (6) means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, yet current efforts to curtail the problem are struggling to make headway. To improve antiflaring policies, we need to embrace remote sensing techniques that can detect point source methane emissions, and we need to enact new production taxes designed to counteract the effects of gas infrastructure investment on downstream emissions. Image credit: Shutterstock/Leonid Ikan. In 2015 the World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR) launched the “Zero Routine Flaring by 2030” initiative (7), which promotes regulations on flaring and, to a lesser degree, the financing of new gas infrastructure. We present evidence that both of these approaches are seriously flawed. The regulatory solutions appear to be mostly ineffective and, we argue, run the risk of being seriously counterproductive. Because flaring is easily detected with high-resolution satellites whereas measurements of venting are either imprecise (conducted with medium-resolution satellites) or prohibitively costly at scale (done with aerial monitoring), restrictions on flaring can push oil producers toward greater venting. Even a small increase in venting would be enough to create a net increase in global warming. Meanwhile, although gas … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: raphael.calel{at}georgetown.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1