The Unexpected Setback to Bengaluru - COVID-19 Disaster Management Review

Abstract

Negative impact of COVID-19 exist in every place of the Indian1 subcontinent. Chennai, Mumbai and Delhi were affected so badly in Quarter 2 with a huge number of cases; however, Kolkata and Bangalore were doing good with a smaller number of cases. At Bangalore, as on 15 June 2020, the situation was good2 and by end of June 2020, the COVID19 situation of Bangalore started towards the negative side as the number of cases is increasing more. By the last week of October, the number of confirmed cases came down. Aim: The primary objective of the research paper is to explore the current state of COVID-19 pandemic of Bangalore by comparing the previous months. We attempt to explain how the condition was good till June and how badly it was affected by the huge number of cases (4-5 times) from June end onwards. Further, we predict the confirmed cases and death rates for the forthcoming days for Bangalore. Technique, Sample and method: For this research work, we have used the data from 15 June 2020 to 26 October 2020 from the government of Karnataka and Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike3 (BBMP). To forecast the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed and death cases for Bangalore and Other major cities (for comparison), we have used FORECAST.ETS function in Microsoft Excel. The forecasting is estimated till 31 December 2020. Results: By 15 Nov 2020, the forecasted cumulative cases would be 368264 in the Bangalore city. By 30 Nov 2020, the forecasted cumulative cases would be 398929. By 15 Dec 2020, the forecasted cumulative cases would be 429594 and by 31 Dec 2020, the forecasted cumulative cases would be 462303. If the situation goes bad due to various reasons, the number of cumulative cases may go up to 634462. The average COVID-19 case growth of Bangalore is 141% (Average from June to Oct 2020). Conclusion: When Major cities of India were doing bad in terms of COVID-19, Bangalore was doing well for the first few months. From June end onwards, the covid-19 cases increased in Bangalore by 4-5 times which is unexpected. By the end of October, the rate of COVID-19 increase is comparatively less than the previous months. For now, COVID-19 situation may be under control to some extent, however, that does not mean that this scenario will continue. At any point in time, the situation may go back to the worst condition as similar to the second wave of COVID-19 is being encountered by the European countries. Proactive approaches and pandemic management strategies should be in place to manage the worst situation. People and the economy affected badly due to COVID-19 already and it may not be feasible to suffer once again.