The Unemployed with Jobs and Without Jobs

Abstract

Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they desire to work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups–those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and they will be recalled. We show that the resulting recall-unemployment dissipates quickly following a shock. Those whose jobs no longer exist constitute what we call jobless-unemployment. Shocks that elevate jobless-unemployment have much more persistent effects. The unemployed without jobs often circle through short-term jobs, spells of unemployment. and spells out of the labor force, before finding stable employment. Historical major adverse shocks, such as the financial crisis in 2008, created mostly jobless-unemployment and consequently caused extended periods of elevated unemployment. The pandemic starting in March 2020 created a large volume of recall-unemployment, most of which dissipated by August. It also created a bulge in jobless-unemployment, which is lingering.