The uncertainty tree: Reducing the uncertainty of uncertainty analysis

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis is an integral aspect of experimental measurements, though accurately assessing the flow of uncertainty in a measurement system—particularly for complicated systems with more than a few variables—can become a challenging, error-prone task, while being less enjoyable than it should be. This note proposes the uncertainty tree, a graphical, hierarchal structure to quickly and accurately assess the flow of uncertainty in experimental measurements. A few basic rules for tree construction are set forth that provide the essential building blocks to construct the tree. An example is provided that illustrates the use of the uncertainty tree concept in a real-world problem.