The Uncertainty and Uncoordination of Mariners' Behaviour in Collision Avoidance at Sea

Abstract

It is well known that many collisions occur because one ship turns right whilst the other turns left when in close proximity to one another. Little is known as to why this occurs and, although some simulation models have been established using entropy theory, the problem remains unsolved.In this paper, an assessment model for uncertainty is reviewed briefly. The concepts of uncertainty and uncoordination of mariners' behaviour in collision avoidance are discussed. A simulation model in conjunction with a DCPA (distance to the closest point of approach) decision-making model using fuzzy programming is introduced to discuss coordination.