The ultimate bottleneck

Abstract

It is commonly feared nowadays that mankind will run out of energy and of raw materials. It is argued that we need to change our style of life very markedly to adjust to a world in which these two necessities are in short supply. This does not seem to me to be a very pressing problem. Both of these necessities are at present plentifully available in the universe. The reserves of energy and raw materials now known in the universe are so enormous that even at our present rate of growth, within the time-span of any period which it is reasonable to foresee, i.e., hundreds or perhaps thousands of years, we face not the slightest danger of exhausting them. One may argue about ways of gaining access to such reserves, and whether such access will be available in time to meet the need for them and whether we can meet the cost of drawing on them. The existence of the resources is however indisputable. There is, however, another commodity, one that is not naturally available in the universe, and of which the reserves are probably nearer to exhaustion than are the reserves of energy and raw materials. This phenomenon is new scientific knowledge and the talent to acquire it. This includes the capacity to create new scientific understanding and the ability to utilise that understanding. Without the talent, the new knowledge cannot be gained. We do not know how to create this talent. We can cultivate it and aid it