The UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) and its impact on the EU as a climate change actor

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe EU’s work on climate change is key to the regional and international fight against the problem, and disruptions to it have global implications. When analyzing the effects of the UK’s decision to leave the EU (Brexit) on EU climate action, this paper looks at two types of impact. The first is related to UK absence from EU climate policy, finance and diplomacy following the actual UK departure from the EU. The second is related to the costs attached to the withdrawal process, including the additional costs and uncertainty created by the delayed UK departure. These latter implications of Brexit have been less explored by the literature, although the last years provide plenty of evidence for them. The paper finds that the impact of Brexit on EU climate action is mainly negative, without denying some potential positive impact and while acknowledging the limitations of a study that entails forecasting in an uncertain political context.Key policy insightsFollowing Brexit, the EU will lose a member that supported its climate action internally and internationally through commitment to high emissions reduction targets at the EU level, policy solutions, and financial and diplomatic support.The withdrawal process itself has had a negative impact on EU climate action: Brexit has hijacked the EU agenda, captured EU human and administrative resources and increased the uncertainty in which investors and businesses operate.Planning for separate European Councils to deal with Brexit could prevent agenda hijacking. Both the EU and UK also need to provide businesses with a clear regulatory framework.A repeatedly postponed Brexit has caused additional damage, by prolonging uncertainty.Continuing to work with the UK on climate during the Brexit negotiations and after the UK departure should be a priority for the EU, as well as ensuring the willingness to cooperate is not spoiled by mutual resentment.