The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Wage Flexibility?

Abstract

UK GDP per worker fell by almost 4% in the five years following Lehman's collapse in 2008, something unprecedented in post-war history. A possible reason for poor productivity is low growth in the effective capital-labour ratio. This is likely to have occurred because there has been a fall in real wages and increases in the cost of capital due to the financial crisis. We simulate various changes in the capital-labour ratio and after accounting for these changes, the evolution of total factor productivity appears much more similar to earlier severe recessions and likely to be related to underutilised resources.