The U.S. Housing Market and the Pricing of Risk: Fundamental Analysis and Market Sentiment

Abstract

We explore the pricing patterns of the residential real estate market in the United States in the context of the recent housing bubble and subsequent deflation. We examine 10 consolidated metropolitan statistical areas and calculate excess residential market return per risk. Then, using an error correction model, we regress excess residential market return per risk on fundamental market risk factors from a range of demand- and supply-side variables together with a non-fundamental-based sentiment variable. Our long-run findings reveal that non-fundamental-based (irrational) consumer sentiment is a significant exogenous variable in the pricing pattern of U.S. residential real estate.