"The Two Methods of Additive Holt Winters and Fuzzy Logic in Predicting the Time Series"

Abstract

The prediction of future behavior of this under study phenomenon is considered as the most important and vital subject in statistics. This study took a great deal of concern by statistics' researchers in order to estimate the parameters of time series' samples, consequently, using it in the prediction and controlling of areas for applicatory fields. Recently, many researches appeared to use modern computer technologies in analyzing nonlinear series, besides, many different statistical subjects, such as neural-networks and fuzzy logic. The purpose of this research is characterized by using fuzzy logic method and comparing it with Holt Winters additive method depending upon mean square error MSE to predict the chronological series' values. The fuzzy logic method had overcome the additive Holt Winters method according to the statistical norms. Therefore, the fuzzy method could be the best and the most accurate method in predicting the time series.