The Truth Limps After: Social Science and Advocacy in Chicago Gun Sentencing

Abstract

At a pivotal moment in a 2013 Chicago debate on criminal sentences for illegal gun-carrying, social scientists from the University of Chicago Crime Lab advocated for sentence enhancements, aligning with Mayor Rahm Emanuel's policy goals. These scientists argued that sentence enhancements were guaranteed to benefit public safety despite a lack of research upholding the efficacy of sentence enhancements. This paper argues that the Crime Lab wrongly took incapacitative crime reduction for granted; presents an original analysis of Chicago neighborhood-level data testing the connection between criminal sentences for gun-carrying and violent crime rates, which fails to demonstrate a connection between higher gun sentences and lower violent crime; and argues that the Crime Lab's advocacy was not - and could not have been - neutral in the way the organization claimed.