The trend of the structural change of the city taxi market in China: a modal split analysis in the context of different market access rules

Abstract

ABSTRACT To elucidate the impact of online car-hailing (OCH) on traditional taxi services and in producing structural changes to urban taxi markets in China, we propose a model based on the market access rules and business models of the two modes that analyzes their interactions in the following arenas: fleet size, passenger waiting time, service level, and driver income. Then, we build a nested logit model to predict the modal splits and market shares for four travel modes (online car-hailing, traditional taxi, metro, and bus). Taking Ningbo as an example, we estimate the changes in the number of OCH vehicles, the modal splits of the four travel modes, and the new equilibrium in urban taxi service markets. We show that OCH puts significant pressure on the traditional taxi market due to the positive feedback between OCH fleet size and its service quality.