The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

Abstract

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25-year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non-road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used. If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met. If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO 2 emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non-technical measures (such as land-use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.