The treatment effect of the Shanxi Comprehensive Reform Area policy on PM2.5 concentrations: A study based on a quasi-experiment.

Rongxia Zhang,Wei Li,Baichuan Xiang

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-16225-y

Abstract

Based on panel data on 248 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018, this study first estimates the treatment effect of the Shanxi Comprehensive Reform Area policy on PM2.5 concentrations using a PSM-DID method within the counterfactual framework. The average treatment effect shows that contrary to the naive before-after analysis, on average, the Shanxi Comprehensive Reform Area policy significantly increased the PM2.5 concentrations of prefecture-level cities in Shanxi Province by 0.211% annually, and the place-based placebo test shows that the treatment effect obtained above is robust. Second, the dynamic treatment effects show a continuous decrease in incremental effects during 2011-2018, gradually decreasing from a significant positive increment during 2011-2015 to a zero or even a negative increment during 2016-2018, indicating that the Shanxi Comprehensive Reform Area policy gradually increased in environmental friendliness. Third, the mediating effects estimated by the causal steps procedure show that the Shanxi Comprehensive Reform Area policy influenced PM2.5 concentrations by increasing the intensity of resource exploitation and decreasing the intensity of environmental regulations, but the capacity of scientific and technological innovations had no mediating effect on the relationship between the policy and PM2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the government should further reduce the intensity of resource exploitation, strengthen the intensity of environmental regulations, and promote environmentally focused scientific and technological innovations to reduce PM2.5 concentrations in Shanxi Province.

Highlights

Since its reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained strong momentum in its growth and has had remarkable achievements
By referring to the literature on the mechanisms that influence the effect of coordinated regional development strategies on the environment in resource-based regions, we summarize the main influencing mechanisms as follows: (1) First, coordinated regional development strategies may relax resource exploitation restrictions and increase the intensity of resource exploitation, thereby deteriorating environmental quality; (2) second, within the framework of a coordinated regional development strategy, a series of environmental regulations are formulated and implemented to reduce environmental pollution and resource depletion during the process of economic development; and (3) third, coordinated regional development mainly relies on scientific and technological innovation, which reduces environmental pollution and promotes the construction of an ecological civilization
This paper examines the causal effects of this policy on PM2.5 concentrations using the PSM-DID method

Summary

Introduction

Since its reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained strong momentum in its growth and has had remarkable achievements. According to the 2020 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) jointly released by Yale University and Columbia University, China ranks 120th out of 180 countries with an EPI score of 37.3, and Denmark ranks first with a score of 82.5 (Wendling et al 2020). As a major coal-producing area in China, Shanxi Province experiences severe environmental pollution (Li et al 2018). According to the 2019 National Ecological Environment Quality Report released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Shanxi Province includes three of the top ten most polluted cities (Linfen, Taiyuan and Jincheng) among the 168 major cities in terms of the severity of air pollution. The primary cause of ecological and environmental problems in Shanxi Province is its coal-based economic development model that is unsustainable in the long term. To explore sustainable development paths for resource-based regions and boost the optimization and upgrading of their industrial structure, the State

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