The transmission mechanism of the housing price fluctuations on the global value chain position of manufacturing-evidence from China

Abstract

Since the real estate market reform in 1998, China's house prices have been rising. High housing prices have exerted negative impacts on labour mobility, the investment environment and resident consumption, all of which may affect the overall resource allocation efficiency and the improvement of the global value chain position of China’s manufacturing industry. However, there is little research on the mechanism of the impact of housing prices on the status of manufacturing global value chain. Based on the matching data of China and the OECD-TiVA from 2005 to 2016, the parallel multiple mediator model is adopted to empirically test the transmission mechanism of housing price fluctuation on the global value chain position of China's manufacturing industry in this study using human capital level, resident consumption level, resident consumption structure, and R&D investment level as the mediating variables. This article finds that although housing price fluctuations do not have a direct impact on the global value chain position of the manufacturing industry, human capital level and resident consumption structure do have positive and negative mediating effects, respectively. Finally, we put forward some suggestions to promote the global value chain position of China's manufacturing industry, which provides useful reference for policy makers.