The transformation of frequency distributions of winter precipitation to spring streamflow probabilities in cold regions; case studies from the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

Hydrological processes alter the states and/or locations of water, and so they can be regarded as being transformations of the properties of the time series of input variables to those of output variables, such as the transformation of precipitation to streamflow. Semi-arid cold regions such as the Canadian Prairies have extremely low annual streamflow efficiencies because of high infiltration rates, large surface water storage capacities, high evaporation rates and strong climate seasonality. As a result snowfall produces the majority of streamflow. It is demonstrated that the probability distributions of Prairie spring streamflows are controlled by three frequency transformations. The first is the transformation of snowfall by wind redistribution and ablation over the winter to form the spring snowpack. The second transformation is the melt of the spring snowpack to produce runoff over frozen agricultural soils. The third is the transformation of runoff to streamflow by the filling and spilling of depressional storage by connecting fields, ponds, wetlands and lakes. Each transformation of the PDF of the input variable to that of the output variable is demonstrated at a number of locations in the Canadian Prairies and is explained in terms of the hydrological processes causing the transformation. The resulting distributions are highly modified from that of precipitation, and the modification depends on which processes dominate streamflow formation in each basin. The results demonstrate the need to consider the effect of the interplay among hydrological processes, climate and basin characteristics in transforming precipitation frequency distributions into those of streamflow for the design of infrastructure and for water management.