The Trajectory of the United States in the World-System: A Quantitative Reflection

Abstract

Using improved estimates of world and country GDPs, population, and GDP per capita published by Angus Maddison (2001), we report findings of a quantitative study of the trajectory of the United States in world historical perspective. We compare the U.S. economic hegemony of the twentieth century with the seventeenth-century Dutch hegemony and the British hegemony of the nineteenth century. We also track the trajectories of challengers and discuss the future of hegemonic rivalry and global governance. Our findings support the existence of a sequence of hegemonic rises and declines. Despite a recent plateau in the decline of U.S. economic hegemony, we contend that the United States will continue to decline.