The total factor characteristics evaluation of photovoltaic power by coarse-fine-grained method

Abstract

The study of photovoltaic(PV) power uncertainty is of great significance to promote the collaborative optimization of source-grid-load-storage. On the one hand, using a single probability distribution model to describe the fluctuation, intermittency and randomness of PV power is limited and controversial; On the other hand, qualitative analysis oriented to only one or two of them is characterized with poor interpretability and one-sidedness. So that, a evaluation framework for the total factor characteristics named "dual-DMU" is established corresponding to the discrete, mutation and unordered phenomenon of PV power, and a coarse-fine-grained evaluation method is proposed, which can realize the comprehensive description and all-sided evaluation of PV power. Combined with the historical data of a rooftop PV power plant, the analysis reveals the variability of total factor characteristics in different seasons, weather types, and typical time periods, and the methodology can provide a theoretical basis and decision-making support for the construction of PV power forecasting models, energy storage capacity optimization, and adjustable load resource allocation.