The Time-Series of Energy Mix and Transition: A Comparative Study of OECD Countries through the Fuzzy-Set Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the global trends of energy mix and energy transition from a chronological view (from Y1995 to Y2015) and identify the actual results based on the empirical findings. It sets up a measurement framework of energy mix (four energy sources: fossil fuel (F), hydroelectric (H), renewable (R), and nuclear (N)), and compares thirty-four Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries’ cases through the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. In short, twelve ideal types of energy mix of the thirty-four OECD countries were derived in Y1995; eleven ideal types in Y2000, thirteen ideal types in Y2005, twelve ideal types in Y2010, and fifteen ideal types in Y2015, respectively. This study particularly reveals the gradual change of the features of energy transition, although an epoch-making trend of overall energy transition in OECD countries is not identified. For example, from1995 to 2010, in the case of Type 7 (F*h*r*N) with a characteristic of ‘pan-conventional energy-centered mix’ having two high features (F, N), and of Type 8 (F*h*r*n), characterized by ‘fossil fuel-centered energy mix’ with one high feature (F), seven to eight countries were steadily included, but in 2015 there was a significant decrease to four countries (solely Type 7). Throughout the five stages from 1995 to 2015, the type with the largest number of countries (20) was Type 10 (f*H*R*n, ‘pan-renewable energy-centered type’) led by hydroelectric (H) and renewable energy sources (R), followed by the second most, Type 12, (f*H*r*N, ‘hydro & nuclear-centered type’, characterized the high features of H and N) with nineteen countries.